Skip to content
Changelog, page 20

What shipped, and when.

A day-by-day record of what landed in Underwrite, kept by hand. Page 20 of 23.

Want to verify? The six files the decision depends on are rendered from the live source at /methodology/engine.

Show only

Filter by engine, UI, AI, ops, marketing or fixes.

2026-05-13
15 entries

Monte Carlo, Deal Strength composite score, sensitivity curves, break-even cushions, risk-adjusted returns, tenant concentration, hotel ops overlay, GP coinvest sweep, debt sizing optimizer, NOI decomp, a below-NOI leasing-capex parser, and 15 more analytics. The day the memo went from 'pro forma + waterfall' to 'institutional IC packet.'

  1. New IC memo section: entry / stabilized / exit caps + spread (exit - entry) with the framing classified in plain English (aggressive / neutral / conservative / very conservative). Cherry Street's -49 bps spread sits right at the neutral / aggressive cusp. Tells the IC at a glance whether the appreciation thesis lives on cap compression (aggressive), rent growth alone (neutral), or has a defensive cushion for rate hardening (conservative).

  2. Capstone new IC memo section: a 0-100 composite score synthesizing all the new institutional analytics into a single headline number. Five subscores: Returns Quality (25), Risk (25), Capital Structure (20), Resilience (20), Operations (10). Each component has a transparent rationale shown in an expandable detail panel. Computed deterministically from the engine outputs: same inputs always produce the same score, locked in regression. Cherry Street scores 95/100 'Exceptional' (only loses 5 pts on Risk for a slightly thinner Monte Carlo P10).

  3. New section: sweeps GP coinvest 0% / 5% / 10% / 15% / 20% / 25% and shows LP IRR + GP IRR + the gap at each. LP IRR is invariant across coinvest (LP capital and distributions scale together); GP IRR converges toward LP IRR as the GP commits more capital, diluting the promote's amplification effect. Useful when negotiating LP terms with the sponsor: quantifies the alignment of incentives at each coinvest level. Cherry Street pattern: 10% coinvest produces 13.91% LP / 24.83% GP / 11pp gap; 25% coinvest narrows to 13.91% / 19.06% / 5.15pp gap.

  4. Engine validation now fires asset-class-native warnings: Hotel deals without the hotel-ops overlay get an info nudge to break out brand / mgmt / FF&E fees; Office deals without a tenant rent roll get an info nudge to add tenants; rent per SF / monthly rent per key / per unit get flagged outside institutional ranges (e.g. office $15-120/SF, multifamily $800-7,500/mo, industrial $4-24/SF). Closes one more facet of the 'one-shoe-fits-all' critique; the engine now actively coaches the analyst toward the asset-class-native modeling features rather than letting them silently underwrite a hotel with multifamily fields.

  5. New IC memo section: proper three-section accounting view (Operating / Investing / Financing) that every IC committee, lender, and auditor expects to see. Sums to Net Cash to Equity, which matches the equity waterfall's headline series. Surfaces the exit year as a single combined number: operating CF + sale proceeds + balloon payoff = the biggest LP distribution on the memo. Adapts to deal structure (mezz lines and refi line only render when those features are active).

  6. New IC memo section: debt yield (NOI / outstanding loan) year-by-year. Y1 / Y3 forward / exit-year debt yield + a refi-ability flag (clears the 8% institutional threshold = yes / no). Cherry Street prints 10.75% Y1 → 11.72% Y3 → 14.10% exit, well above the 8% bar, so a maturity refi is realistic instead of a forced sale. Pair with the leverage curve to read whether the deal has both refinance optionality AND room for incremental leverage.

  7. New IC memo section: year-by-year YOC = NOI / Total Uses (purchase + closing + fees + cumulative leasing capex). Cherry Street starts at 6.81% Y1 yield, stabilizes at 7.24% by Y3, and exits at 8.19% Y7, a 138 bps compression from Y1 to exit. The institutional 'income half' of returns; pair with the exit-vs-entry cap spread to read whether the appreciation thesis is conservative or aggressive.

  8. New IC memo section: for each key driver (exit cap, rent growth, vacancy), surfaces the value at which IRR crosses zero (the break-even) and the cushion in basis points between current and break-even. Flagged thick / moderate / thin / negative. Cherry Street has thick cushions everywhere: exit cap could go from 6.5% to 11.1% (462 bps), rent growth could drop from 3% to -1.7% (468 bps), and vacancy basically has unlimited cushion thanks to the appreciation gain crystallizing at exit. A deal with thin cushions on multiple drivers is fragile; thick cushions across the board mean real margin of safety.

  9. New IC memo section: NPV of the equity cash flow series discounted at 5% / 8% / 10% / 12% / 15% / 18%, the institutional hurdle ladder. Each row flagged accretive (NPV > 0) or dilutive. Cherry Street is accretive at all rates 5% through 15% but dilutive at 18%, with NPV crossing zero between 15% and 18% (consistent with the 15.34% project IRR). Lets the LP map the deal to their specific fund hurdle instead of just reading a single IRR number.

  10. New IC memo section answers 'when does the LP get made whole?' with three concrete year measures: operating payback (interim distributions only: captures whether yield alone returns capital), total payback (interim + exit-year sale proceeds), and discounted payback (cash flows discounted at the pref rate). Cherry Street's operating payback is never within hold (rent yield well below 15%); total and discounted both land on Year 7 (the exit). Year-by-year cumulative CF table shows the running net cash position, so the IC can read the trajectory at a glance.

  11. New IC memo section: surfaces typical institutional ranges for project IRR, entry cap rate, senior LTV, and min DSCR per property type (Multifamily, Mixed-Use, Office, Retail, Hotel, Industrial), drawn from NCREIF / CBRE / JLL Q4 2025 transaction surveys. Each metric is flagged in-band, above-band, or below-band so the analyst can sanity-check at a glance whether the deal is in the market middle or an outlier. Cherry Street's IRR / cap / LTV all sit in-band; DSCR is conservatively above-band (1.46x vs typical 1.25-1.45x).

  12. New IC memo section: sweeps the senior debt rate -100bps to +200bps in 50bps steps and re-runs the full DCF, capturing IRR + min DSCR at each rate. Cherry Street loses ~126 bps of IRR per 100bps of rate spike; max feasible rate (where min DSCR still clears 1.25x) is 7.75% (~150bps of headroom over current). Useful when sizing acquisitions against a rising-rate forward curve: see at a glance how rate-sensitive the deal is and where the lender feasibility ceiling sits.

  13. New IC memo section: each year's Δ NOI broken into Δ EGI (revenue) and Δ OpEx, with residential and commercial revenue Δs called out separately. Surfaces whether NOI growth is coming from rent compounding, lease-up vacancy burnoff, free-rent rolloff, or expense discipline. A deal growing on rent compounding is materially different from one growing on burnoff; this section makes the distinction visible at a glance.

  14. New IC memo section: 50 / 25 / 25 default probability split (base / upside / downside) using the existing Aggressive and Recession stress definitions for the wings. Cherry Street headline IRR 15.34% becomes 12.58% on a probability-weighted basis, a 276 bps drag that surfaces tail-risk an analyst would otherwise miss when staring at a single base-case number. The framing stays consistent with the stress matrix and ScenarioBar overlays: same shocks, just blended into a single expected value.

  15. New IC memo section: shows the three lender tests (LTV cap 75%, DSCR floor 1.25x, debt yield floor 8%) side-by-side with the binding constraint flagged. Tells the IC at a glance which test gates leverage on the deal. Cherry Street is LTV-binding at $6.375M (75% × $8.5M); DSCR allows $6.432M and debt yield allows $7.426M, so policy LTV is the gate. Pattern: DSCR-binding deals need better operations or lower rates; LTV-binding deals are at the lender's policy ceiling.

The engine math is on the methodology page, the six files the decision depends on are on the engine viewer, and the Phase 1 simplification list is at /methodology/beyond-phase-1.