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Changelog, page 17

What shipped, and when.

A day-by-day record of what landed in Underwrite, kept by hand. Page 17 of 23.

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2026-05-14
15 entries

Phase 3 begins: live market data overlay (FRED Treasury / SOFR / CPI / inflation expectations) + 18 more institutional analytics. Live macro frame, deal-vs-market positioning, deterministic engine guarantee preserved (Cherry Street regression byte-identical with seeded fallbacks). 90 modules shipped today.

  1. New IC memo section: modern portfolio theory applied to a single CRE deal. Single-asset IRR stdev (from Monte Carlo) is dramatically higher than the variance of a diversified portfolio of N comparable deals; portfolio_stdev = single_stdev / sqrt(N). The difference is the idiosyncratic risk premium an LP should demand for holding the single asset vs the diversified-portfolio equivalent. Default N = 25 (institutional CRE allocator's typical non-trivial fund). Cherry Street: 268 bps single-asset stdev, 54 bps portfolio-of-25 stdev, ~214 bps concentration premium. The premium-adjusted hurdle = point IRR - premium = what the LP keeps after compensating for single-asset risk. Explains why REITs trade at tighter spreads than single deals, and why insurance / pension capital favors diversified vehicles. Bands: low (<150 bps), moderate (150-250), high (250-400), very-high (>400).

  2. New IC memo section: classic finance metric. OLC = % change in NOI / % change in revenue. Stresses revenue ±5% via proforma rerun and computes the headline OLC as the average of up-shock and down-shock coefficients. Bands: low (<1.3x, NOI moves with revenue), moderate (1.3-2.0x, typical CRE), high (2.0-3.0x, operationally heavy like hotels), extreme (>3.0x, fragile). Also surfaces the fixed cost share of total OpEx as supporting evidence. The 'implied 10% revenue shortfall → NOI impact' translates the multiplier into a directly-relevant stress number; a 2.0x OLC means a 10% revenue miss = 20% NOI miss. Cherry Street prints ~1.7x (moderate), 67% fixed costs. Useful for sizing the vacancy cushion in underwriting.

  3. New IC memo section: the lender's ongoing-exposure view. Forward LTV = outstanding debt (senior + mezz) / implied asset value (NOI / entry cap rate, constant-cap assumption) year by year. Distinct from origination LTV: this tracks how the lender's position evolves as NOI grows and debt amortizes. Asset Coverage Ratio (ACR = 1/LTV) is the inverse: ACR &gt;1.0x means the asset is worth more than the outstanding loan. Cash-out refi capacity at maturity = (75% × current value) - outstanding debt. Sub-100% LTV cells flagged in red. Cherry Street: 65% LTV at origination → ~46% LTV at end-of-hold (ACR 2.18x), with ~$2.6M cash-out capacity at 75% refi LTV. Bands: strong (LTV &lt;50%), typical (50-70%), tight (70-100%, no cash-out room), underwater (&gt;100%).

  4. New IC memo section: tracks what fraction of NOI actually converts to distributable cash year-by-year, after debt service (senior + mezz) and capital spend (leasing TI/LC). NOI is the headline; cash-to-equity is what the LP pockets. Institutional bands: strong (>50%, low leverage or high debt yield), typical (30-50%, standard 65-70% LTV), tight (10-30%, refurb / lease-up heavy), thin (<10%, returns live on exit). Cherry Street's avg conversion ~33% (typical band, 65% LTV with moderate capex). Year-by-year table flags negative-conversion years (when NOI doesn't cover DS+capex and sponsor cash injection is required). Two deals with identical NOI trajectories can have radically different cash conversion if one is more leveraged; yield-focused LPs care about this more than nominal NOI.

  5. New IC memo section: year-by-year DSCR at base, -10%, -15%, and -20% NOI stress (standard CMBS lender-side test). Worst-case DSCR at each stress level surfaced explicitly. Max NOI stress at which the deal stays above the 1.25x institutional covenant for every year of the hold = a single 'how much NOI cushion does this loan actually have' number. Sub-covenant cells flagged in red so the IC can see exactly which year breaches first. Cherry Street: Y1 DSCR 1.46x base, stays above covenant through -15% NOI (worst-year 1.24x), breaches at -20% (worst-year 1.16x). Max clearing stress 14.4%. Anticipates the question every lender's credit committee asks, 'what's the cushion if NOI underperforms?', and surfaces the answer on the sponsor's IC memo before it's even asked.

  6. New IC memo section: splits LP total equity gain into three institutional sources: operating cash (yield-driven, recurring), debt paydown (forced equity buildup from loan amortization, contractual unless default), and appreciation (sale-driven from rent growth + cap movement). Shape classification: yield-heavy (operating > 50%), paydown-heavy (paydown > 25%), appreciation-dependent (appreciation > 60%), or balanced. Inline stacked bar visualizes the three components. Cherry Street: ~$1.3M operating + ~$700k paydown (~115 bps of IRR) + ~$3.8M appreciation = appreciation-dependent shape (classic CRE pattern). The shape captures risk profile behind the headline IRR; a 70% appreciation deal is fundamentally riskier than a 30/30/40 balanced split at the same IRR.

  7. New IC memo section: Y1 insurance line as basis points of property value AND as % of EGI, compared to institutional typical bands by asset class (Multifamily 15-30 bps, Mixed-Use 20-40 bps, Hotel 30-60 bps, Industrial 10-20 bps, etc.). Plus asset-class-native unit readout ($/unit, $/SF, or $/key). Cherry Street: 26 bps of value (in-band for Mixed-Use), $917/unit (slightly heavy for a residential-dominant Mixed-Use). Plain-English interpretation flags renewal-cycle risk (below-band = under-reserved against hardening market) or climate exposure (above-band = coastal/wildfire/hurricane geography). Especially relevant post-2024 as the property insurance market has hardened 40-100% on exposed assets.

  8. Major punch-up to app.getunderwrite.com/. Pillars reframed so each makes a different point (workflow speed, depth via 58 analytics, audit trail). New 'How it works' 3-step section. New 'Inside the IC memo' section that surfaces 12 of the 58 actual analytics by name. New pricing teaser strip (Free during beta, founding 100 free forever). Founder note rebuilt with gold-gradient AA avatar circle, blockquote-styled quote, and direct mailto to ali@getunderwrite.com. Pillar cards now have soft gold hover shadow; diligence links got arrow + translate-x-1 on hover.

  9. The 50+ section IC memo now has sticky right-rail navigation (MemoTOC component) that highlights the current section as you scroll, smooth-scroll click-to-jump, mobile 'Jump to' dropdown, deep-link anchor support, and reading-progress cue. New Executive vs Full view toggle (MemoViewControls) with per-section collapse, persisting selection in localStorage. Print stylesheet v2 adds page-break-inside: avoid per section, repeating table headers, and greyscale chart fallback.

  10. All chart primitives in components/charts/** got polish: alternating-row striping on the tornado, bar strokes for contrast, accessibility <desc> elements, cleaner axis typography, ChartEmptyState component for graceful empty states, label-clip fix on the tornado (the '15.08%' → '5.08%' bug where outer labels collided with the input-label column). Charts now flip value text inside the bar with white fill when there's no clearance outside.

  11. New IC memo section: surfaces the often-overlooked institutional risk that US property tax basis resets on transaction. The seller's Y1 RE tax line is often well below what the new owner will pay at full reassessment. Compares the proforma's Y1 tax to the reassessed amount (purchase price × asset-class typical effective rate: Multifamily 1.2%, Office 1.8%, Mixed-Use 1.4%, etc.) and runs the IRR impact if reassessment fully applies at Y2. Cherry Street: $95k Y1 tax vs $119k reassessed (Mixed-Use 1.4% rate on $8.5M purchase) = $24k Y2 uplift = 161 bps IRR drag, 'moderate' risk band.

  12. New IC memo section: checks whether the engine's reserves line covers institutional structural capex per asset class. Multifamily $400/unit, Office $1/SF, Hotel $3,000/key, etc. Plus avg leasing capex from rent rolls when applicable. Cherry Street reserves cover 219% of expected capex (well-reserved at $18k/yr avg vs $8.4k expected for 24-unit Mixed-Use). Catches the deals where the headline reserves line is understated; a Hotel running 1% reserves of EGI is a red flag because real FF&E need is 4-5%.

  13. New IC memo section (active on coinvest deals): decomposes the GP's standalone return into pari-passu (their pro-rata share of LP+GP dist) and promote (carry above pro-rata). Cherry Street + 10% GP coinvest: GP MoIC 4.19x, of which $562k = promote dollars = 1.76x of GP contribution alone. Framing: 'outsized' carry leverage (MoIC > 4x). Makes the carry compensation explicit so LP can negotiate the promote structure with full visibility.

  14. New IC memo section: what the maturity refi looks like under +0 / +50 / +100 / +150 / +200 / +300 bps Treasury rate shifts. At each scenario the lender sizes the loan at MIN of 1.25x DSCR / 8% debt yield / 75% LTV. Cherry Street: refi loan shrinks from $7.91M at current rate to $5.97M at +300 bps, but feasibility holds across all sampled rates; the deal can be refinanced even in a severe rate-shock scenario, just at a smaller loan amount. Useful for sponsors stress-testing maturity refi against forward-curve scenarios.

  15. New IC memo section: Y1 cash-on-cash (NOI after debt service / equity) vs LP pref rate. The honest 'is the deal self-funding pref out of Y1 operations?' check. Cherry Street: Y1 CoC 5.81% vs 8% pref = -219 bps spread, 'appreciation-dependent' framing. The unlevered cap (6.99%) and levered gross yield (18.56%) shown for context. Tells the IC at a glance whether the LP's pref obligation can be paid from current income or must accrue and be cleared at exit.

The engine math is on the methodology page, the six files the decision depends on are on the engine viewer, and the Phase 1 simplification list is at /methodology/beyond-phase-1.