Net domestic migration per metro, distinct from population growth (which includes births, deaths, international migration). Pure net domestic migration is the cleanest CRE demand signal because it captures economic choice, people moving toward jobs / affordability / quality of life rather than demographic momentum. Five-year cumulative trend, migration ratio (in/out movers), in-mover median age (signals demand mix: young = MF, older = single-family / luxury). Composite health score 0-100 with bands: inflow-strong (75+, secular tailwind), inflow-moderate, stable, outflow-moderate, outflow-stressed (<25, severe headwind). Mid-2026 patterns: Sunbelt still net positive but cooling from 2022 peak (Austin +2.0%/yr, Charleston +2.5%, Nashville +2.2%); West Coast gateways outflowing (SF -1.4%, LA -1.2%); NYC -0.8%; Boston near-zero. Production Phase 3 integrates Census ACS + IRS county-to-county migration data. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY): mild outflow -0.4%/yr, moderate band.
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Phase 3 begins: live market data overlay (FRED Treasury / SOFR / CPI / inflation expectations) + 18 more institutional analytics. Live macro frame, deal-vs-market positioning, deterministic engine guarantee preserved (Cherry Street regression byte-identical with seeded fallbacks). 90 modules shipped today.
Three US tax code mechanisms that can affect a taxable LP's after-tax return, each described as an illustrative overlay rather than as a rule in force: (1) a like-kind exchange at exit, which the memo does not render and the product does not model or advise on; (2) cost segregation with a first-year bonus rate, where the overlay reclassifies about 25% of building basis as short-life property and applies its own assumed first-year rate to that share, without asserting the rate in force for any year; (3) Opportunity Zone treatment, which applies only if the property sits in a designated zone, which the engine does not know. The memo reports the illustrative after-tax IRR lift for the overlays it renders, on the deal's own figures (rough rule: tax savings / equity / hold × 100 = bps), and says that the rate, the zone designation and the eligibility for this property and this year are for a tax professional to confirm. Relevant to taxable LP pools (family offices, HNW); REITs, pensions and endowments are unaffected. Production Phase 3 will integrate with the existing after-tax overlay engine for full integrated modeling.
Current institutional CMBS pricing spreads over the live 10Y Treasury, by tier. Seeded mid-2026 spreads: AAA SASB 100 bps, AAA Conduit 125 bps, AA 175 bps, A 240 bps, BBB 425 bps, BB 720 bps, plus CRE-CLO AAA 165 bps and BBB 525 bps. Maps the deal's senior rate to the closest CMBS tier (implied tier) and surfaces the spread vs AAA Conduit benchmark. The CMBS bond market is the deepest source of price discovery for institutional CRE debt; even portfolio lenders (life insurance, debt funds) price loans relative to where CMBS clears. Positioning bands: well-below-market (unusually favorable, likely relationship lender or pre-cycle lock), in-line-with-AAA (best-in-class), above-AAA-typical (moderate leverage), in-line-with-BBB (higher leverage / value-add), well-above-market (bridge debt or stressed). Cherry Street: 6.25% rate vs 10Y Treasury 4.5% + 125 AAA Conduit = 5.75% = 175 bps spread, prints in-line-with-AAA range. Production Phase 3 integrates Trepp / Bloomberg CMBS live spread feeds.
ENR (Engineering News-Record) Construction Cost Index-equivalent inflation applied to the deal's capex load. Market tier baselines: Gateway +7% YoY (labor scarcity + complex projects), Major Sunbelt +6% YoY (volume pulling in trades), Secondary +5% YoY (lower volatility). For acquisition-led deals (capex <10% of value) treated as minor variable. For capex-heavy deals (value-add 10%+, ground-up 50%+), surfaces stress projections at +1%, +2%, +5% overrun above baseline and the implied IRR drag. Cost overruns are a top-3 institutional risk on capex-heavy deals. Production Phase 3 integrates Turner Construction / CBRE construction cost index live data.
Institutional ESG positioning score (0-100) across three pillars: Environmental (50% weight) = inverted physical climate risk + inverted transition risk; Social (25%) = asset class social value (Multifamily 85, Mixed-Use 75, Industrial 50, Hotel 45, Retail 55, Office 40) + affordability layer (residential rent vs market); Governance (25%) = sponsor alignment (GP coinvest presence) + transparency (engine is reviewable, always 95). Material for ESG-mandated institutional capital: GRESB scoring, SEC climate disclosure for public REITs, SFDR Article 9 EU funds, CalPERS / CalSTRS / NYS Common Retirement Fund mandates all use ESG inputs in allocation decisions. Bands: ESG-leading (85+, unlocks tight-priced ESG-mandated tranches), ESG-aligned (65-84, acceptable to most ESG LPs), ESG-mixed (45-64, some LPs may pass), ESG-laggard (<45, limited appetite). Inline gold-gradient progress bar makes the composite immediately scannable. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY Mixed-Use, ~$2,400 rent, no GP coinvest): high environmental scores from low-exposure market, moderate social score, mid-pack governance = ESG-aligned band.
Trailing 12-month and 3-year total returns for major REIT sector indices, mapped to the deal's asset class. Public REIT returns are a leading indicator of private CRE cycle position: negative sector returns for 12-18 months typically precede private cap expansion 6-12 months later; positive returns precede private compression. Mid-2026 seeded sector ranking: Data Center 22.5% / Industrial 15.8% leading the cycle, Multifamily 9.2% / Self-Storage 8.5% in-stride, Hotel 0.5% / Retail Mall 1.2% lagging, Office -8.5% stressed. Surfaces deal IRR vs sector REIT 12m return as premium-justified (>400 bps over public), in-line, or underpriced. Full sector ranking table highlights the deal's sector row. Cherry Street (Mixed-Use 5.8% trailing): deal IRR 15.3% captures 950 bps premium-justified positioning. Production Phase 3 integrates FTSE NAREIT live index data.
Simulates the deal's debt service as if the senior loan were floating-rate indexed (SOFR + 350 bps typical bridge spread) and stresses across the live forward curve. Most institutional CRE deals price with fixed-rate senior, but bridge debt, value-add transitional loans, and CRE-CLO collateral run floating. For those deals the engine's hardcoded interest rate hides the rate-path exposure that's the dominant risk factor. Year-by-year SOFR projection bootstrapped from live curve + floating-rate DSCR at each year. Positioning: fixed-favorable (deal's fix is cheaper than market expects), rate-neutral (within ±50 bps), or floating-favorable (deal locked in a premium for certainty). Sub-1.25x DSCR cells flagged in red. With seeded mid-2026 SOFR (4.30%) + 350 bps = 7.80% floating vs Cherry Street's 6.25% fixed: 155 bps fixed-favorable.
Distinct from physical climate risk (geographic overlay): transition risk = the regulatory, market, and technology shifts driving the energy transition and their CRE impact. Building electrification mandates (NYC LL97 with $268/ton fines over caps, Boston BERDO, California Title 24, Washington Clean Buildings Performance Standard), SEC climate disclosure, GRESB scoring, state-level carbon pricing, stranded-asset risk for Class B/C office in WFH-soft markets. Composite score = asset class base risk × jurisdiction multiplier. Asset class base: Office 75 (highest target), Hotel 60, Retail 50, Industrial 45, Mixed-Use 35, Multifamily 25. Jurisdiction multipliers: NYC 1.80x (LL97 most aggressive), Boston 1.65x, Seattle/SF 1.55x, LA 1.50x, Texas 0.65x, Florida 0.70x. Estimated per-unit / per-SF compliance capex over hold for elevated/high-band exposures (e.g. NYC Office ~$25-45/SF retrofit). Critical for institutional ESG-mandated capital and for deals in stringent jurisdictions. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY Mixed-Use, 1.10x multiplier × 35 base = 38.5) prints moderate band.
Synthesizes the full Phase 3 module set into a single 0-100 grade for how well the deal's underwriting aligns with current market and macro conditions. Eight dimensions weighted by institutional materiality. Four read market bands this engine does not carry: they take fixed neutral points, which stay in the total, and are not shown. The four shown: cycle-adjusted exit cap (15), inflation hedge quality (10), lender appetite (10) and macro regime alignment (5). Distinct from Phase 1's Deal Strength Score which evaluates deal-specific math; this evaluates against EXTERNAL anchors. Bands: strongly-aligned (85+, fits the regime with cushion), aligned (65-84, minor gaps), mixed (45-64, some signals fighting), misaligned (<45, deal at odds with market, reprice / restructure / pass). Per-component table shows score, max, and rationale. Inline gold-gradient progress bar makes the composite visually scannable at the top of the IC memo.
Synthesizes live macro signals into a composite CRE-lender-appetite score (0-100, higher = tighter standards). Proxy for the Federal Reserve's quarterly SLOOS survey on bank CRE lending standards. Contributing signals: real policy rate (SOFR - CPI, restrictive policy = tighter), 10Y Treasury level (higher pricing benchmark = more cautious), curve inversion (historically precedes credit contraction), CPI elevation (stagflation worry = banks pull back). Bands: accommodative (banks competing for deals), neutral (standard pricing), cautious (narrower pool, higher spreads), restrictive (credit contraction, deals struggle to refi). Combined with the deal's senior loan structure (term < hold = in-hold refi event), surfaces refi-window risk: deals with mid-hold refi events face amplified execution risk in tight conditions. Critical for evaluating the implicit refi exposure baked into the underwriting against the current credit environment.
Classic CRE finance metric: how strongly does the asset class respond to inflation through lease structure? Asset-class institutional betas: Multifamily 1.10x (annual mark-to-market), Industrial 1.15x (CPI-indexed escalators), Hotel 1.70x (daily pricing), Mixed-Use 0.90x, Retail 0.65x (5-10yr fixed escalations), Office 0.45x (7-15yr fixed escalations, worst pass-through). Hedge quality classifier synthesizes asset class beta with current CPI regime: natural-hedge (beta >=1.0 + rent growth >= CPI), partial-hedge (moderate pass-through), weak-hedge (rent lags CPI materially), capacity-mismatch (high CPI + low-beta asset = structural real-return compression regardless of operating execution). Cherry Street: Mixed-Use 0.90x beta, current CPI 3% (seeded), modeled rent growth 3% = partial-hedge, real rent growth flat. Material for LP allocators choosing asset class allocation in the current inflation regime.
Synthesizes the macro regime and the forward rate environment into a single 'what should the exit cap be?' target, then compares to the deal's modeled exit cap. Starts from the deal's going-in cap rate, plus a regime adjustment: early-cycle -50 bps, mid-cycle -10 bps, late-cycle +75 bps, recession +150 bps, early-recovery -100 bps. Plus rate-shock adjustment when forward 10Y > spot 10Y by 100+ bps (curve forecasts rate-driven cap expansion). Positioning: below-target (aggressive cap compression assumed, IRR depends on macro support), near-target (reasonable for cycle), above-target (conservative cushion baked in). The single most-loaded assumption in CRE underwriting is the exit cap; this module makes its cycle-adjusted reasonableness explicit.
Synthesizes live yield-curve shape, CPI level, SOFR, and inflation expectations into a single institutional cycle classifier: early-cycle expansion, mid-cycle, late-cycle / overheating, recession / risk-off, or early-recovery. Each regime carries an explicit cap-rate outlook (compressing / stable / expanding) and recommended hold strategy (lengthen / neutral / shorten). Signal table shows 2Y-10Y slope, CPI YoY, SOFR, real policy rate (SOFR - CPI). The IC underwrites every deal INTO a macro regime; surfacing the regime explicitly anchors the underwriting and exposes timing assumptions that are otherwise implicit. With seeded mid-2026 inputs (CPI 3%, flat curve, neutral real rate), defaults to mid-cycle framing.
Per-market institutional metro fundamentals: population growth (YoY + 5Y trend), median household income, income growth YoY, unemployment rate, job growth. Composite fundamentals score (0-100) weighted across five signals (population 30%, income growth 25%, job growth 20%, unemployment 15%, 5Y trend 10%) with band classification: weakening / stable / growing / robust. Plain-English notes on dominant signals (e.g. 'population declining 0.5% YoY, secular headwind, rent growth thesis needs to lean on income / employment'). Seeded library covers 16 major US CRE metros. CRE returns are downstream of demographics: a 5% rent growth thesis in a market with -1% population is fundamentally suspect; the same in a market with +3% population is defensible. Production Phase 3 hooks into Census ACS, BLS QCEW, BEA regional data.
Replaces the engine's static 3% inflation assumption with live CPI and 5Y breakeven inflation expectations from FRED. The Phase 1 realReturns module uses a constant 3% to convert nominal IRR to real (purchasing-power) terms, fine for baseline but misleading at elevated CPI regimes. At 4.5% CPI, a 15% nominal IRR translates to ~10.0% real (vs 11.65% at 3%). This module surfaces three calibrations side-by-side: baseline (engine 3%), current CPI (live FRED last 12mo), forward expectations (5Y breakeven). Inflation regime classification (below-baseline / at-baseline / above-baseline / elevated) frames the diligence priority. LP allocators comparing returns across rate regimes need the live recalibration. Falls back to seeded fallback CPI when FRED unavailable; UI flags the source so the analyst sees provenance.