Detects sale-leaseback (SLB) characteristics (single corporate tenant occupying 90%+ of leasable area on a 10+ year lease) and surfaces SLB-specific risks the canonical engine bands miss. SLB is a distinct institutional category: property value is essentially the PV of tenant's contractual rent. Critical diligence priorities surfaced: (1) Tenant Credit Concentration (investment-grade BBB+ supports tight cap; HY B/BB requires 150+ bps premium), (2) Residual Value Risk (specialty industrial / office often have limited alternative uses post-lease), (3) Rent Escalation Structure (fixed escalators below CPI = real rent compression), (4) Extension Option Asymmetry (tenant-controlled, if asset compresses they walk, if appreciates they extend and capture spread), (5) Landlord Capex Carve-Outs (even NNN typically carves out structural / roof / HVAC). Auto-detects with high/medium/low confidence; renders only when SLB signatures match. Composite risk score 0-100 with bands: tenant-credit-clean / tenant-credit-watch / tenant-credit-risk. Material for institutional investors evaluating net-lease portfolios.
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Phase 3 begins: live market data overlay (FRED Treasury / SOFR / CPI / inflation expectations) + 18 more institutional analytics. Live macro frame, deal-vs-market positioning, deterministic engine guarantee preserved (Cherry Street regression byte-identical with seeded fallbacks). 90 modules shipped today.
Meta-capstone synthesizing the full Phase 1 + Phase 3 signal stack into a single integrated institutional read with a GO / GO-WITH-CAVEATS / WAIT / NO-GO verdict. Distinct from prior composites: Phase 1 Deal Strength evaluates deal math; Macro Alignment Score evaluates underwriting quality vs market; Timing Verdict evaluates cycle timing. This module integrates ALL of them plus live calibration, insurance renewal risk, and 30-year climate. Weights: Deal Math 25%, Macro Alignment 20%, Cycle Timing 15%, Live Calibration 15%, ESG 10%, Insurance Renewal 10%, 30-Year Climate 5%. Hard guards: Phase 1 PASS verdict → NO-GO regardless of macro (math failure overrides everything); Phase 3 timing PASS → WAIT (timing failure can be deferred). Surfaces top 3 supportive signals + top 3 concerns explicitly. Per-component contribution table shows each signal's score, weight, weighted contribution, and rationale. This is the headline call the IC committee asks: 'do we do this deal or not?', synthesized across deal math + market positioning + cycle timing + ESG + renewal risk + climate. Renders as the FIRST Phase 3 section in the IC memo with the largest visual treatment (verdict badge, integrated score, supportive vs concern panels). Phase 3 META badge to distinguish from regular Phase 3 modules.
Foreign LP appetite for the deal's market, a hidden but material dimension of exit liquidity and fundraising. Markets with deep cross-border capital have institutionally diverse buyer pools at exit; secondary markets depend entirely on domestic capital. Mid-2026 seeded estimates: NYC 38% cross-border share ($18.5B TTM, dominant Canadian + Asian + Middle Eastern), Miami 48% (highest share, Latin American capital flight dominant at 52% of foreign inflow), LA 32% (Asian capital-led, -5% YoY on California cost / regulation concerns), SF 30% (-18% YoY on office stress), Austin 22% (emerging on tech-driven foreign interest), Boston 28% (life-sciences-focused). Bands: gateway-deep (NYC, LA, Miami) / gateway-standard (SF, Boston) / major-emerging (Austin, Dallas) / secondary-limited (everything else; Canadian institutional dominant). Per-source breakdown by origin: Canadian, Asian, European, Middle Eastern, Latin American. For sponsors raising capital, surfaces which foreign LP archetypes are realistically targetable for the deal's market.
Compares the engine's hardcoded default values against live FRED data and surfaces the 'stale-ness' of each input. Distinct from Live Calibration Suggestions (which evaluates the analyst's current modeled values): this evaluates the engine's STARTING defaults, useful before editing a fresh deal to know whether the template values reflect today's market. Fields evaluated: expense growth vs live CPI (3.78%), rent growth vs 5Y inflation expectations (2.70%), interest rate vs live 10Y Treasury + 125 bps AAA CMBS spread (~5.71%). Per-field rationale explains exactly what market source feeds each suggestion. Composite stale score 0-100 with bands: fresh (<15) / modestly-stale (15-35) / stale (35-60) / very-stale (60+). Cherry Street with mid-2026 defaults: stale band; expense growth 2.5% materially below live CPI 3.78%, rent growth 3% modestly above 5Y breakeven, interest rate 6.25% close to market-implied 5.71%. Surfaces the gap an analyst typically misses when grabbing a default template.
Most CRE asset classes are domestic-demand-driven and insulated from tariff / trade policy shifts. Industrial / logistics is the major exception. Major US gateway markets are directly exposed to tariff regime changes: LA/Long Beach moves 40%+ of US containerized imports, Newark NJ serves East Coast trade, Houston Gulf Coast, Charleston Southeast. Sunbelt markets (Phoenix, Dallas, Houston) benefit from near-shoring (Mexico FDI) and reshoring tailwinds (TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio, Hyundai Georgia, Samsung Texas). Three exposure dimensions: import gateway concentration (0-100), manufacturing reshoring exposure, near-shore beneficiary status. Composite weighted: gateway 45%, manufacturing 30%, near-shore 25%. Bands: low / moderate / elevated / high. Active mid-2026 policy drivers listed: sustained China tariff regime, USMCA mid-cycle review uncertainty, EU CBAM phase-in, Mexico near-shoring continuation ($40B+ FDI), Sunbelt reshoring tailwind. Auto-fires only on industrial deals; gracefully skipped for other asset classes.
Standard CRE underwriting uses flat expense growth (2.5% baseline). Energy costs have run materially higher in 2024-2026 due to AI training infrastructure pulling grid demand, renewables deployment + fossil baseload retirement, heat pump electrification mandates (NYC LL97, CA Title 24, WA CBPS), and grid-resilience pass-throughs. Per-asset-class utility OpEx share: Hotel 20% (24/7 ops), Mixed-Use 18%, Multifamily 15%, Office 12%, Retail 10%, Industrial 8% (tenant-controlled). Surfaces current energy inflation YoY by market (CA elevated at 7.2%, NY 6.4%, MA 5.8%, TX 6.0% from ERCOT grid stress + AI demand), spread over live CPI baseline, 5-year compounded projection, and the incremental expense growth implication for the deal. Active drivers shown explicitly. For utility-heavy asset classes (Hotel, Mixed-Use, MF), recommends recalibrating expense growth or modeling utilities separately. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY Mixed-Use, 18% utility share, ~5.25% energy inflation vs CPI 3.78%): implication 'material'; modeled flat 2.5% expense growth understates the trajectory by ~40 bps/year compounding to ~25% gap over 5 years.
CRE-CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) is the securitization market for floating-rate bridge / value-add / transitional CRE debt. Issuance volume is the institutional canary for bridge debt capacity: active issuance means bridge funds have take-out at maturity; collapsed issuance means bridge sponsors face forced sales. Seeded Q1 2026 issuance estimate ~$9B; TTM $32B vs $24B prior year (+33% YoY recovery from 2023 dislocation; peak was $45B in 2022). Bands: robust (>$15B quarterly, bridge accessible at tight spreads), standard ($8-15B), thin ($3-8B, take-out risk material), closed (<$3B, refi unavailable). Bridge refi viability flags: favorable / neutral / stressed / unavailable. Live SOFR + curve slope modulate the seeded volume signal; restrictive real policy rate (SOFR-CPI >2%) + inverted curve downgrades market band one tier because the bridge market is unlikely to clear at seeded levels in restrictive monetary conditions. Auto-detects deals with bridge characteristics (short term <=4yr, high LTV >=72%) and surfaces a specific take-out viability recommendation. Critical for sponsors of value-add / transitional capital structures.
Per-market view of which insurance carriers are actively writing CRE property insurance, which are non-renewing existing books, and which have fully withdrawn. Material because renewal risk is a hidden killer of long-hold deals in catastrophe-exposed markets. Post-2024 institutional insurance market has fragmented along climate lines: Florida + Gulf Coast saw private carriers exit (Citizens insurer-of-last-resort now 1.5M+ policies); California saw State Farm + Allstate pause new commercial 2023-2024 (CA FAIR Plan capacity tripled); Texas TWIA capacity tightening. Availability score 0-100 weighted: active-aggressive = 1.0, active-cautious = 0.5, non-renewing = 0.0, withdrawn = -0.5, multiplied by market share. Bands: deep / moderate / thin / constrained. Severity for the deal: minimal / moderate / elevated / critical. Diligence priority: standard / elevated / immediate. Per-carrier breakdown shows status badge + market share + notes for each major carrier in the market. Seeded library covers 7 major catastrophe-exposed CRE markets (Miami, Houston, LA, SF, NYC, Boston, Ithaca baseline). Critical for lenders increasingly requiring carrier rating + concentration diligence on new financing. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY): deep / standard band; competitive carrier market, no concentration concerns.
CRE deals are underwritten on 7-10 year holds but the asset sits in the market for 50-100 years. The climate exposure at year 30 is part of the exit-buyer's underwriting, which feeds back into today's terminal value. Projects the deal's climate risk forward 30 years under three IPCC AR6 / NIST / NOAA-calibrated scenarios: Baseline (current emissions trajectory; continued warming + insurance hardening), Moderate Transition (Paris-aligned 2°C; aggressive transition policy + tech deployment stabilizes insurance markets), High Warming (>3°C, transition failure; insurance market withdrawal in coastal / wildfire corridors, structural devaluation). Each scenario surfaces projected 2055 risk score, insurance market viability (viable / constrained / non-renewing / withdrawn), estimated asset value impact, and scenario-specific amplifiers (hurricane intensification, wildfire perimeter expansion, multi-meter SLR, etc.). Material for long-hold institutional capital + insurance-mandated capital (CalPERS / state pensions / SFDR Article 9 EU funds). High-risk markets (Miami, Houston, LA, Charleston) see -18% to -35% baseline-to-worst-case asset value range; secondary markets show -5% to -15%.
The Phase 1 engine bands cover six canonical CRE asset classes (Multifamily, Mixed-Use, Office, Retail, Hotel, Industrial). Three 2024-2026 institutional darlings sit outside that taxonomy: Data Center ($50B+ Q1 2026 transaction volume driven by AI training infrastructure), Build-to-Rent SFR (purpose-built rental communities consolidating to REITs + private capital), Life Sciences (specialized lab / R&D adjacent to research clusters). Detects via property type / deal name / address keyword signatures with confidence rating. Surfaces asset-class-specific bands the canonical engine misses: Data Center cap 4.75-6.5% with $9-18k/kW power capacity pricing; BTR SFR cap 5.1-6.8% with $250-450k/unit; Life Sciences cap 4.7-6.8% with $700-1500/SF lab-ready pricing. Plus specialized risk factors per class: power capacity / grid interconnect timing + hyperscaler concentration for data centers; per-unit maintenance + retention rates for BTR; stranded fit-out + biotech funding cycle for life sciences. Non-invasive overlay: existing engine modules continue to work unchanged on canonical asset classes. Cherry Street (Mixed-Use): detection returns 'not-applicable', section skipped. Production deals tagged with new asset classes get the bespoke institutional read.
Macro-aware version of the Phase 1 Sell vs Refi cash math. The Phase 1 module gives the cash trade-off ($ sale vs $ refi cash-out); this Phase 3 version layers live macro context onto the decision and produces an explicit recommendation. Synthesizes five signal categories: cash math (sale ratio vs refi capacity), macro regime (late-cycle favors sell; early-recovery / expansion favors refi-and-hold), lender appetite (accommodative favors refi; restrictive favors sell), forward rate environment (rising favors sell now; falling favors refi-and-hold), and refi feasibility gate (ACR >= 1.10x required at maturity, else sell forced). Scored -100 (strong sell) to +100 (strong refi-and-hold). Driver table shows each signal with weight + favors-sell-or-refi + rationale so the IC sees exactly which signals pulled the call. Recommendations: sell-now / lean-sell / indifferent / lean-refi / refi-and-hold. The maturity decision sponsors usually fall back to gut on; now anchored to live macro + actual cash math.
Synthesizes live macro regime + lender appetite + CMBS spreads + asset class into a recommended OPTIMAL capital structure for the current environment. Standard CRE templates hard-code LTV (65%) and rate structure (fixed) without macro consideration. This module asks the better question: given current conditions, what stack maximizes risk-adjusted return? Recommends LTV (with explicit guidance to increase / maintain / decrease vs modeled; base by asset class: Office 55%, Hotel 58%, MF 65%, Industrial 68%; adjusted by lender band + macro regime), fixed vs floating preference (lock fixed in normal curve; float in inverted curve during late-cycle to capture rate-cut path), senior-only vs mezz preference (mezz when senior tight + asset DSCR strong; especially Office post-2024), and term length (short in inverted-curve regimes to avoid locking in peak rates, long in early-recovery to lock current low rates before re-rating). Overall structure label: Aggressive Fixed Senior / Standard Fixed Senior / Conservative Fixed Senior / Floating Bridge / Senior + Mezz Stack. Distinct from debt-sizing solver (max sizable loan): this is about optimal structure given the current macro frame. Material when sponsor is finalizing structure for an LP pitch or refinance.
Synthesizes Phase 3 signals into a single institutional 'is this the right deal at the right time?' verdict. Distinct from Phase 1 Verdict (deterministic math: PURSUE / PASS based on IRR + DSCR + grade) and Macro Alignment Score (underwriting quality vs market): this is the TIMING layer. Even a well-priced deal can be a bad call if the macro regime is screaming wait (late-cycle + tightening lenders + supply oversupply); even a mediocre-priced deal can be timely in early-recovery + constrained-supply + accommodative-lender conditions. Five timing dimensions weighted: macro regime (25 pts), cycle-adjusted cap (20), lender appetite (20), supply environment (20), live calibration (15). Verdicts: strong-buy (85+, exceptional window), buy (70-84, favorable), neutral (50-69, deal-specific factors dominate), wait (30-49, headwinds material, consider delaying), pass (<30, multiple severe signals, only contrarian / distressed buyers should engage). Surfaces the primary catalyst when wait or pass is recommended so the IC sees exactly which dimension is fighting the deal. Full-size verdict banner at top of Phase 3 section in IC memo. This + Phase 1 Verdict + Deal Strength composite = the full IC committee read on whether the deal is buy-able in current conditions.
This is the module that makes Underwrite feel alive. Compares the deal's underwriting inputs against LIVE FRED data and surfaces inconsistencies as actionable suggestions. The engine actively coaches the underwriting against current macro conditions. Checks: expense growth vs current CPI (live FRED, currently 3.78% YoY), senior debt rate vs current AAA CMBS market (live 10Y + 125 bps spread), and rent growth vs 5Y inflation expectations. Each suggestion names the field, the modeled value, the market-implied value, and a recommended recalibration with a plain-English rationale. Severity bands: critical (gap likely wrong, deal at risk), warning (material gap, justify or recalibrate), info (minor flag, conservatively cushion). Currently flagged automatically: deals modeling 2.5% expense growth when live CPI is 3.78% get a critical suggestion to recalibrate. The engine is now plugged into real markets; your underwriting gets reviewed against live macro on every memo render.
State-level tax variables layered on top of the uniform federal LTCG rate. The federal 20% + 3.8% NIIT applies everywhere, but state-level adds dramatically vary: no-tax states (TX, FL, NV, WA, TN) add 0%; high-tax states (CA, NY, NJ, MA) add 9-13%. Combined federal + state burden on a CA-based LP can be >35% of capital gains vs <20% in TX. Bands: low-tax / moderate-tax / high-tax / punitive-tax based on composite (top marginal income 60% weight + property tax 40%). Estimates annual income tax on distributions + capital gains tax at exit + total state burden over hold + IRR drag for fully-taxable LPs. Tax-exempt LPs (pensions, endowments, REITs) unaffected. Seeded library: 15 major states. Cherry Street (Ithaca NY): New York state, punitive band (10.9% income tax, 1.4% property tax), ~~$430k total state burden over 7yr hold, ~190 bps IRR drag for fully-taxable LPs. Production Phase 3 will pull current-year Tax Foundation state tables.